On Wednesday 2 april, EPRC hosted a seminar by Dr Andrew Judge from the University of Strathclyde. In this seminar, the likelihood of a suspension of Russian gas supplies via Ukraine and the impact of such a suspension on EU gas imports were analysed.
Though the suspension of gas transit is far from inevitable, current circumstances and the developments in Crimea mean that it cannot be ruled out. The impact of such a suspension would disproportionately affect Central and South-East Europe, with Western Europe having sufficient access to alternative supplies. Most EU member states in Central and South-East Europe currently lack alternative supplies, but have sufficient gas storage to cope with a disruption of gas supplies lasting one or two months. In this regard, Bulgaria remains vulnerable as the only EU member state in this region that has neither sufficient gas storage nor access to alternative supplies.
The presentation slides can be downloaded here.